USDA this week reported global production is forecast 2 percent higher in 2021 to a record 102.9 million tons. Although China will make the largest gains, its production growth will decelerate as consumer demand slackens.
Modest expansion is forecast for other leading producers, with the most significant gains by Brazil, EU, the United States, and India. While a portion of this growth will be directed to international markets, forecasted economic growth will buoy domestic demand in major producing countries.
Global exports are forecast 2 percent higher in 2021 to a record 12.2 million tonnes. The world’s leading exporter Brazil will account for over one-third of the growth. Brazil’s competitive advantage to supply diverse products to a wide range of markets at competitive prices will facilitate expanded shipments to the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, critical for growth in the face of weaker China demand. After two years of spectacular growth, China demand will soften, although remaining near the record high. Globally, rising EU and Saudi Arabia demand will more than offset the decline in China as well as South Africa. US production and exports.
US production is expected to rise 1 percent to 20.5 million tonnes in 2021. Exports are forecast virtually unchanged at 3.3 million tonnes as lacklustre demand in most major US markets, in particular Mexico, will inhibit growth.