MARKET ANALYSIS

COVID-19 AND ASF AFFECT PHILIPPINES GRAINS IMPORTS

The Philippines’ chicken sector, which is traditionally the strongest performers in the agricultural economy in the country, have been severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic as well as the African Swine Fever outbreak. Imports of wheat and corn have been lowered as a result of reduced demand for feed.

Corn imports in MY2020/2021 are lowered to 375,000 mt from the current forecast of 600,000 mt, reflecting reduced demand from broilers According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, the total corn area harvested from January to June 2020 declined by about 1% compared to 2019. Yellow corn, which is used for animal feed, grew 2.6% during the same period. Better than usual weather may have contributed to corn’s higher output. Corn imports are predominantly sourced via ASEAN member countries due to the lower tariff (5%) compared to the 35% in-quota tariff for Most Favored Nation countries, primarily the US and Argentina. Imports are expected to decline by nearly 4% to 375,000 mt in MY2020/21 compared to the previous year due to reduced poultry feed demand. Chicken meat production in 2020 is forecast to decline by 15%, with a partial recovery in 2021. On the other hand, industry contacts see the layer sector growing between 5 and 10% in 2020 and continuing in 2021.